The eruption of multipolarity but not peace
Four speeches with significant implications for the European security architecture, US Grand Strategy, China's diplomacy and the future of Eurasian trade and investment.
https://www.youtube.com/@BR24
JD Vance’s full speech on the fall of Europe
Transcript of US vice-president JD Vance speech at the Munich Security Conference.
14 February 2025, 3:32pm
One of the things that I wanted to talk about today is, of course, our shared values. And, you know, it’s great to be back in Germany. As you heard earlier, I was here last year as United States senator. I saw Foreign Secretary David Lammy, and joked that both of us last year had different jobs than we have now. But now it’s time for all of our countries, for all of us who have been fortunate enough to be given political power by our respective peoples, to use it wisely to improve their lives.
And I want to say that I was fortunate in my time here to spend some time outside the walls of this conference over the last 24 hours, and I’ve been so impressed by the hospitality of the people even, of course, as they’re reeling from yesterday’s horrendous attack. The first time I was ever in Munich was with my wife, actually, who’s here with me today, on a personal trip. And I’ve always loved the city of Munich, and I’ve always loved its people.
I just want to say that we’re very moved, and our thoughts and prayers are with Munich and everybody affected by the evil inflicted on this beautiful community. We’re thinking about you, we’re praying for you, and we will certainly be rooting for you in the days and weeks to come.
We gather at this conference, of course, to discuss security. And normally we mean threats to our external security. I see many, many great military leaders gathered here today. But while the Trump administration is very concerned with European security and believes that we can come to a reasonable settlement between Russia and Ukraine – and we also believe that it’s important in the coming years for Europe to step up in a big way to provide for its own defence – the threat that I worry the most about vis-a-vis Europe is not Russia, it’s not China, it’s not any other external actor. What I worry about is the threat from within. The retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values: values shared with the United States of America.
I was struck that a former European commissioner went on television recently and sounded delighted that the Romanian government had just annulled an entire election. He warned that if things don’t go to plan, the very same thing could happen in Germany too.
Now, these cavalier statements are shocking to American ears. For years we’ve been told that everything we fund and support is in the name of our shared democratic values. Everything from our Ukraine policy to digital censorship is billed as a defence of democracy. But when we see European courts cancelling elections and senior officials threatening to cancel others, we ought to ask whether we’re holding ourselves to an appropriately high standard. And I say ourselves, because I fundamentally believe that we are on the same team.
We must do more than talk about democratic values. We must live them. Now, within living memory of many of you in this room, the cold war positioned defenders of democracy against much more tyrannical forces on this continent. And consider the side in that fight that censored dissidents, that closed churches, that cancelled elections. Were they the good guys? Certainly not.
And thank God they lost the cold war. They lost because they neither valued nor respected all of the extraordinary blessings of liberty, the freedom to surprise, to make mistakes, invent, to build. As it turns out, you can’t mandate innovation or creativity, just as you can’t force people what to think, what to feel, or what to believe. And we believe those things are certainly connected. And unfortunately, when I look at Europe today, it’s sometimes not so clear what happened to some of the cold war’s winners.
I look to Brussels, where EU Commission commissars warned citizens that they intend to shut down social media during times of civil unrest: the moment they spot what they’ve judged to be ‘hateful content’. Or to this very country where police have carried out raids against citizens suspected of posting anti-feminist comments online as part of ‘combating misogyny’ on the internet.
I look to Sweden, where two weeks ago, the government convicted a Christian activist for participating in Quran burnings that resulted in his friend’s murder. And as the judge in his case chillingly noted, Sweden’s laws to supposedly protect free expression do not, in fact, grant – and I’m quoting – a ‘free pass’ to do or say anything without risking offending the group that holds that belief.
And perhaps most concerningly, I look to our very dear friends, the United Kingdom, where the backslide away from conscience rights has placed the basic liberties of religious Britons in particular in the crosshairs. A little over two years ago, the British government charged Adam Smith Conner, a 51-year-old physiotherapist and an Army veteran, with the heinous crime of standing 50 metres from an abortion clinic and silently praying for three minutes, not obstructing anyone, not interacting with anyone, just silently praying on his own. After British law enforcement spotted him and demanded to know what he was praying for, Adam replied simply, it was on behalf of his unborn son.
He and his former girlfriend had aborted years before. Now the officers were not moved. Adam was found guilty of breaking the government’s new Buffer Zones Law, which criminalises silent prayer and other actions that could influence a person’s decision within 200 metres of an abortion facility. He was sentenced to pay thousands of pounds in legal costs to the prosecution.
Now, I wish I could say that this was a fluke, a one-off, crazy example of a badly written law being enacted against a single person. But no. This last October, just a few months ago, the Scottish government began distributing letters to citizens whose houses lay within so-called safe access zones, warning them that even private prayer within their own homes may amount to breaking the law. Naturally, the government urged readers to report any fellow citizens suspected guilty of thought crime in Britain and across Europe.
Free speech, I fear, is in retreat and in the interests of comedy, my friends, but also in the interest of truth, I will admit that sometimes the loudest voices for censorship have come not from within Europe, but from within my own country, where the prior administration threatened and bullied social media companies to censor so-called misinformation. Misinformation, like, for example, the idea that coronavirus had likely leaked from a laboratory in China. Our own government encouraged private companies to silence people who dared to utter what turned out to be an obvious truth.
So I come here today not just with an observation, but with an offer. And just as the Biden administration seemed desperate to silence people for speaking their minds, so the Trump administration will do precisely the opposite, and I hope that we can work together on that.
In Washington, there is a new sheriff in town. And under Donald Trump’s leadership, we may disagree with your views, but we will fight to defend your right to offer them in the public square. Now, we’re at the point, of course, that the situation has gotten so bad that this December, Romania straight up cancelled the results of a presidential election based on the flimsy suspicions of an intelligence agency and enormous pressure from its continental neighbours. Now, as I understand it, the argument was that Russian disinformation had infected the Romanian elections. But I’d ask my European friends to have some perspective. You can believe it’s wrong for Russia to buy social media advertisements to influence your elections. We certainly do. You can condemn it on the world stage, even. But if your democracy can be destroyed with a few hundred thousand dollars of digital advertising from a foreign country, then it wasn’t very strong to begin with.
Now, the good news is that I happen to think your democracies are substantially less brittle than many people apparently fear.
And I really do believe that allowing our citizens to speak their mind will make them stronger still. Which, of course, brings us back to Munich, where the organisers of this very conference have banned lawmakers representing populist parties on both the left and the right from participating in these conversations. Now, again, we don’t have to agree with everything or anything that people say. But when political leaders represent an important constituency, it is incumbent upon us to at least participate in dialogue with them.
Now, to many of us on the other side of the Atlantic, it looks more and more like old entrenched interests hiding behind ugly Soviet era words like misinformation and disinformation, who simply don’t like the idea that somebody with an alternative viewpoint might express a different opinion or, God forbid, vote a different way, or even worse, win an election.
Now, this is a security conference, and I’m sure you all came here prepared to talk about how exactly you intend to increase defence spending over the next few years in line with some new target. And that’s great, because as President Trump has made abundantly clear, he believes that our European friends must play a bigger role in the future of this continent. We don’t think you hear this term ‘burden sharing’, but we think it’s an important part of being in a shared alliance together that the Europeans step up while America focuses on areas of the world that are in great danger.
But let me also ask you, how will you even begin to think through the kinds of budgeting questions if we don’t know what it is that we are defending in the first place? I’ve heard a lot already in my conversations, and I’ve had many, many great conversations with many people gathered here in this room. I’ve heard a lot about what you need to defend yourselves from, and of course that’s important. But what has seemed a little bit less clear to me, and certainly I think to many of the citizens of Europe, is what exactly it is that you’re defending yourselves for. What is the positive vision that animates this shared security compact that we all believe is so important?
I believe deeply that there is no security if you are afraid of the voices, the opinions and the conscience that guide your very own people. Europe faces many challenges. But the crisis this continent faces right now, the crisis I believe we all face together, is one of our own making. If you’re running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you. Nor for that matter, is there anything that you can do for the American people who elected me and elected President Trump. You need democratic mandates to accomplish anything of value in the coming years.
Have we learned nothing that thin mandates produce unstable results? But there is so much of value that can be accomplished with the kind of democratic mandate that I think will come from being more responsive to the voices of your citizens. If you’re going to enjoy competitive economies, if you’re going to enjoy affordable energy and secure supply chains, then you need mandates to govern because you have to make difficult choices to enjoy all of these things.
And of course, we know that very well. In America, you cannot win a democratic mandate by censoring your opponents or putting them in jail. Whether that’s the leader of the opposition, a humble Christian praying in her own home, or a journalist trying to report the news. Nor can you win one by disregarding your basic electorate on questions like, who gets to be a part of our shared society.
And of all the pressing challenges that the nations represented here face, I believe there is nothing more urgent than mass migration. Today, almost one in five people living in this country moved here from abroad. That is, of course, an all time high. It’s a similar number, by the way, in the United States, also an all time high. The number of immigrants who entered the EU from non-EU countries doubled between 2021 and 2022 alone. And of course, it’s gotten much higher since.
And we know the situation. It didn’t materialise in a vacuum. It’s the result of a series of conscious decisions made by politicians all over the continent, and others across the world, over the span of a decade. We saw the horrors wrought by these decisions yesterday in this very city. And of course, I can’t bring it up again without thinking about the terrible victims who had a beautiful winter day in Munich ruined. Our thoughts and prayers are with them and will remain with them. But why did this happen in the first place?
It’s a terrible story, but it’s one we’ve heard way too many times in Europe, and unfortunately too many times in the United States as well. An asylum seeker, often a young man in his mid-20s, already known to police, rammed a car into a crowd and shatters a community. Unity. How many times must we suffer these appalling setbacks before we change course and take our shared civilisation in a new direction? No voter on this continent went to the ballot box to open the floodgates to millions of unvetted immigrants. But you know what they did vote for? In England, they voted for Brexit. And agree or disagree, they voted for it. And more and more all over Europe, they are voting for political leaders who promise to put an end to out-of-control migration. Now, I happen to agree with a lot of these concerns, but you don’t have to agree with me.
I just think that people care about their homes. They care about their dreams. They care about their safety and their capacity to provide for themselves and their children.
And they’re smart. I think this is one of the most important things I’ve learned in my brief time in politics. Contrary to what you might hear, a couple of mountains over in Davos, the citizens of all of our nations don’t generally think of themselves as educated animals or as interchangeable cogs of a global economy. And it’s hardly surprising that they don’t want to be shuffled about or relentlessly ignored by their leaders. And it is the business of democracy to adjudicate these big questions at the ballot box.
I believe that dismissing people, dismissing their concerns or worse yet, shutting down media, shutting down elections or shutting people out of the political process protects nothing. In fact, it is the most surefire way to destroy democracy. Speaking up and expressing opinions isn’t election interference. Even when people express views outside your own country, and even when those people are very influential – and trust me, I say this with all humour – if American democracy can survive ten years of Greta Thunberg’s scolding you guys can survive a few months of Elon Musk.
But what no democracy, American, German or European will survive, is telling millions of voters that their thoughts and concerns, their aspirations, their pleas for relief, are invalid or unworthy of even being considered.
Democracy rests on the sacred principle that the voice of the people matters. There is no room for firewalls. You either uphold the principle or you don’t. Europeans, the people have a voice. European leaders have a choice. And my strong belief is that we do not need to be afraid of the future.
Embrace what your people tell you, even when it’s surprising, even when you don’t agree. And if you do so, you can face the future with certainty and with confidence, knowing that the nation stands behind each of you. And that, to me, is the great magic of democracy. It’s not in these stone buildings or beautiful hotels. It’s not even in the great institutions that we built together as a shared society.
To believe in democracy is to understand that each of our citizens has wisdom and has a voice. And if we refuse to listen to that voice, even our most successful fights will secure very little. As Pope John Paul II, in my view, one of the most extraordinary champions of democracy on this continent or any other, once said, ‘do not be afraid’. We shouldn’t be afraid of our people even when they express views that disagree with their leadership. Thank you all. Good luck to all of you. God bless you.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/jd-vance-what-i-worry-about-is-the-threat-from-within/
Opening Remarks by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at Ukraine Defense Contact Group (As
Brussels, Belgium
Good afternoon, friends.
Thank you, Secretary Healy for your leadership, both in hosting and now leading the UDCG.
This is my first Ukraine Defense Contact Group. And I'm honored to join all of you today.
And I appreciate the opportunity to share President Trump's approach to the war in Ukraine.
We are at, as you said Mr. Secretary, a critical moment. As the war approaches its third anniversary, our message is clear: The bloodshed must stop. And this war must end.
President Trump has been clear with the American people – and with many of your leaders – that stopping the fighting and reaching an enduring peace is a top priority.
He intends to end this war by diplomacy and bringing both Russia and Ukraine to the table. And the U.S. Department of Defense will help achieve this goal.
We will only end this devastating war – and establish a durable peace – by coupling allied strength with a realistic assessment of the battlefield.
We want, like you, a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine. But we must start by recognizing that returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.
Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering.
A durable peace for Ukraine must include robust security guarantees to ensure that the war will not begin again.
This must not be Minsk 3.0.
That said, the United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.
Instead any security guarantee must be backed by capable European and non-European troops.
If these troops are deployed as peacekeepers to Ukraine at any point, they should be deployed as part of a non-NATO mission. And they should not covered under Article 5. There also must be robust international oversight of the line of contact.
To be clear, as part of any security guarantee, there will not be U.S. troops deployed to Ukraine.
To further enable effective diplomacy and drive down energy prices that fund the Russian war machine, President Trump is unleashing American energy production and encouraging other nations to do the same. Lower energy prices coupled with more effective enforcement of energy sanctions will help bring Russia to the table.
Safeguarding European security must be an imperative for European members of NATO. As part of this Europe must provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and nonlethal aid to Ukraine.
Members of this Contact Group must meet the moment.
This means: Donating more ammunition and equipment. Leveraging comparative advantages. Expanding your defense industrial base. And importantly, leveling with your citizens about the threat facing Europe.
Part of this is speaking frankly with your people about how this threat can only be met by spending more on defense.
2% is not enough; President Trump has called for 5%, and I agree.
Increasing your commitment to your own security is a down payment for the future. A down payment as you said Mr. Secretary of peace through strength.
We're also here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.
The United States faces consequential threats to our homeland. We must – and we are – focusing on security of our own borders.
We also face a peer competitor in the Communist Chinese with the capability and intent to threaten our homeland and core national interests in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. is prioritizing deterring war with China in the Pacific, recognizing the reality of scarcity, and making the resourcing tradeoffs to ensure deterrence does not fail.
Deterrence cannot fail, for all of our sakes.
As the United States prioritizes its attention to these threats, European allies must lead from the front.
Together, we can establish a division of labor that maximizes our comparative advantages in Europe and Pacific respectively.
In my first weeks as Secretary of Defense, under President Trump's leadership, we've seen promising signs that Europe sees this threat, understands what needs to be done, and is stepping up to the task.
For example, Sweden recently announced its largest ever assistance package. We applaud them for committing $1.2 billion in ammunition and other needed materiel.
Poland is spending 5% of GDP on defense already, which is a model for the continent.
And 14 countries are co-leading Capability Coalitions. These groups are doing great work to coordinate Europe's contributions of lethal assistance across eight key capability areas.
These are first steps. More must still be done.
We ask each of your countries to step up on fulfilling the commitments that you have made.
And we challenge your countries, and your citizens, to double down and re-commit yourselves not only to Ukraine's immediate security needs, but to Europe's long-term defense and deterrence goals.
Our transatlantic alliance has endured for decades. And we fully expect that it will be sustained for generations to come. But this won't just happen.
It will require our European allies to step into the arena and take ownership of conventional security on the continent.
The United States remains committed to the NATO alliance and to the defense partnership with Europe. Full stop.
But the United States will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship which encourages dependency. Rather, our relationship will prioritize empowering Europe to own responsibility for its own security.
Honesty will be our policy going forward – but only in the spirit of solidarity.
President Trump looks forward to working together, to continuing this frank discussion amongst friends, and to achieve peace through strength – together.
Thank you.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/4064113/opening-remarks-by-secretary-of-defense-pete-hegseth-at-ukraine-defense-contact/
A Staunch Force for Stability in a Turbulent World - Keynote Speech by H.E. Wang Yi At the 60th Munich Security Conference Conversation with China
Keynote Speech by H.E. Wang Yi
At the 60th Munich Security Conference
Conversation with China
Munich, February 17, 2024
Dear Friends,
Colleagues,
The past year witnessed much turbulence in our world and many challenges facing humanity. The global economy was weighed down by protectionism and the abuse of the security concept, and the international system was impaired by unilateralism and bloc politics. The Ukraine crisis continued unabated. Conflicts flared up again in the Middle East. Artificial intelligence (AI), climate change, space and the polar regions, among others, were posing a whole new set of challenges.
Against that backdrop, the key message I wish to deliver here is this: No matter how the world changes, China, as a responsible major country, will keep its major principles and policies consistent and stable and serve as a staunch force for stability in a turbulent world.
First, China will be a force for stability in promoting cooperation between major countries.
Major countries shoulder critical responsibilities for global strategic stability. As President Xi Jinping noted, major-country competition is not the prevailing trend of current times. For major countries, the more volatile the international landscape, the greater the need to enhance coordination; the more acute the risks and challenges, the greater the need to advance cooperation.
This year marks the 45th anniversary of China-U.S. diplomatic relations. Past experience and lessons show that when China and the United States work together, great things can be accomplished for the two countries and the entire world, while a confrontational posture between the two countries hurts both sides and the world at large. At the end of last year, the Chinese and U.S. presidents held an important summit meeting, which laid out a future-oriented San Francisco vision. In the meantime, China will firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests and push back against containment and suppression. With a sense of responsibility for history, for the people and for the world, China will work with the U.S. to implement the common understandings between the two presidents and move bilateral relations forward along the right path of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation.
Russia is China’s largest neighboring country. A China-Russia relationship that grows steadily on the basis of non-alliance, non-confrontation and not targeting any third party meets the shared interests of the two countries, serves the strategic stability of the Asia-Pacific and the world, and represents a useful exploration of a new model of major-country relations.
China and Europe are the world’s two major forces, markets and civilizations, and should understand the international responsibilities on their shoulders. A more stable and closer relationship between China and Europe not only works to the advantage of both sides but also brings benefits to the whole world. It is imperative that China and Europe stay clear of geopolitical and ideological distractions, see each other as partners rather than rivals, and join hands to inject positive energy into a volatile world and point the way for overcoming difficulties together.
Second, China will be a force for stability in addressing hotspot issues.
We have worked to explore a Chinese way of addressing hotspot issues, one that advocates for non-interference in internal affairs and opposes imposing one’s will on others; upholds impartiality and justice and opposes pursuing selfish interests; seeks political settlement and opposes using force; aims to address both the symptoms and the root causes and opposes myopia and one-sidedness. With China’s active mediation, a historic reconciliation was reached between Saudi Arabia and Iran, setting off a “wave of reconciliation” across the Middle East. This is a living example of implementing the Global Security Initiative put forth by President Xi Jinping.
The recent escalation and spillover of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the ongoing tension in the Red Sea once again demonstrate that the question of Palestine is at the heart of the Middle East issue. Generations of the Palestinian people have been displaced, unable to return to their home to this day. This is the longest-lasting injustice in our world. China has stood firm on the side of fairness and justice all along, vigorously working for an end to the conflict and for the protection of civilians. China pushed the U.N. Security Council to adopt the first resolution since the latest conflict broke out, and issued a position paper on the political settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. China calls for accelerated efforts in establishing an independent State of Palestine and a more broad-based and effective international peace conference to truly realize peaceful coexistence between Palestine and Israel.
On the Ukraine crisis, China has never given up on promoting peace or slackened its efforts to facilitate talks. President Xi Jinping had in-depth exchanges with world leaders including Russian and Ukrainian leaders, playing a constructive role in addressing the crisis. China also published its position paper on the matter, and its special envoy traveled intensively to mediate among different parties. Behind all this, there is only one goal that China hopes to achieve, that is, to build consensus for ending the conflict and pave the way for peace talks.
China has made tireless efforts for the political resolution of the Korean Peninsula issue. The most pressing task at the moment is to prevent a vicious cycle, address relevant party’s reasonable security concerns, and deescalate and stabilize the situation. On Myanmar, China facilitated various parties of the country in signing a ceasefire agreement in the Chinese city of Kunming, firmly safeguarded peace and stability in northern Myanmar, and encouraged ASEAN to facilitate the proper settlement of the Myanmar issue without interfering in the country’s internal affairs. China also actively supported Afghanistan in building an inclusive political framework and adopting moderate policies, to forestall the resurgence and spread of terrorism.
With a vast territory and over a dozen neighboring countries, China faces complex disputes left from history. On that, China has stayed committed to managing differences through consultation and resolving disputes through dialogue. China stands ready to work with ASEAN to accelerate consultations on a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, advance maritime cooperation and joint development, and build the South China Sea into a sea of peace, cooperation and friendship.
Third, China will be a force for stability in enhancing global governance.
The international system today is under serious strain from unilateralism and power politics. It has thus become a common call of the international community to revitalize multilateralism and work in solidarity to pull through.
In China’s view, the authority and central role of the United Nations (U.N.) can only be further strengthened, not weakened, and the purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter have become all the more important, not outdated. China has dispatched the most peacekeepers among the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, and is the second largest contributor to the U.N. regular budget and peacekeeping assessment. China supports the Security Council in playing a primary role on peace and security. We support the U.N. in holding the Summit of the Future to explore more solutions to the challenges.
In the face of the climate threat, China has contributed to the UAE Consensus at the COP28 U.N. Climate Change Conference. China will cut carbon emission intensity by the biggest margin in the world in the shortest time frame in history, and will without doubt deliver on this commitment. When it comes to challenges from AI, China supports establishing an international AI governance institution under the U.N. framework to jointly safeguard humanity’s well-being.
China worked actively to enhance solidarity and cooperation of the Global South. China promoted the historic expansion of BRICS and gave support to the African Union in joining the G20, with a view to increasing developing countries’ representation and voice in global affairs, and contributing to a more balanced and effective global governance architecture.
As the largest developing country, China has been doing its best to provide more public goods to the world. From the Belt and Road Initiative to the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative and the Global Civilization Initiative, China has stayed committed to cooperation, openness and equality, and contributed its share to meeting global challenges.
In strengthening global governance, the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries must be respected. Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory and Taiwan affairs are China’s internal affairs. To observe basic international norms, the one-China principle must be upheld. To preserve peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, “Taiwan independence” must be firmly rejected.
Fourth, China will be a force for stability in promoting global growth.
I know that many of you follow the Chinese economy closely. Let me say that the Chinese economy, as vibrant and resilient as ever, is showing a more robust momentum of long-term growth. Last year, it grew by 5.2 percent, accounting for one third of global growth. As China grows rapidly into the world’s largest market, it will bring more dividends to the rest of the world. It is generally accepted in the global business community that “the next China is still China.”
Focusing energy on realizing Chinese modernization is the biggest political consensus of the Chinese people right now. Seeking faster progress in high-quality development is of paramount importance for China in the new era. As President Xi Jinping articulated, China will only open its door even wider to the world. We will continue to expand institutional opening up, shorten the negative list on foreign investment, and foster a more market-oriented, law-based business environment up to international standards for companies from Europe and from all over the world. Now China has mutual visa exemption arrangements with 23 countries and applies unilateral visa-free policy to multiple European countries. We will continue to provide more facilitation for people from around the world to invest, travel and study in China.
Today, rejecting decoupling has become an international consensus. More people have come to realize that the absence of cooperation is the biggest risk. Those who attempt to shut China out in the name of de-risking will make a historic mistake. The world economy is like a big ocean that cannot be cut into isolated lakes. The trend toward economic globalization cannot be reversed. We need to work together to make globalization more universally beneficial and inclusive so that more countries and people can benefit from the process.
Friends,
A German proverb says “Those who work alone, add; those who work together, multiply.” This is also true for state-to-state relations. We hope that all countries can seek win-win and avoid lose-lose. Let us work together like passengers in the same boat to bring more certainty to the world and usher in a brighter future for humanity!
http://munich.china-consulate.gov.cn/ger/xwdt/202402/t20240223_11248719.htm
Speech by President von der Leyen at the Munich Security Conference 2025
“Check against delivery”
Bundespräsident Steinmeier,
Ministerpräsident Söder,
Excellencies,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Like so many of you, I have been coming here for many years. From the times when it was an exclusively transatlantic audience to today, when we see political, business and thought leaders from right across the world. This is a testament not only to the great success of the Munich Security Conference. But it also reflects on how the rest of the world impacts our security and our transatlantic relationship.
Our task here in Munich is not just to describe this new geopolitical landscape, but to shape it. And shape it in a way that ensures that our transatlantic values endure, and our interests are defended. Because there is a clear attempt by some to build spheres of influence. Competing visions of the world order are leading to a more transactional approach to global affairs. And Europe has to change to thrive in this new reality. We have to be smart and clear-eyed about what is ahead of us. From a rogue Russia on our borders to challenges to our sovereignty and our security. And we should not underestimate the disruptive potential of intense competition – or even a bipolar conflict between China and the US. This may be uncomfortable to hear. But this is a time for plain speaking.
The good news is that, as we approach this new year of change, Europe is already reforming. The pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the full-scale energy crisis have been brutal times for all of us. But in Europe they showed us also that when we adopt an urgency mentality, we are a force that can move mountains. From vaccines to the unwavering support of Ukraine or energy security, Europe has shown that it can master the moment. We must adopt this urgency mentality more permanently.
This is why what you have seen in the first 100 days of the new Commission is the tone and speed I intend to set for the whole mandate. We are strengthening our competitiveness. We are stepping up on defence. We are enabling innovation for AI. Action is what really matters in this new reality. And we know a stronger Europe is better for all of us. A stronger Europe works with the United States to deter the threats we have in common as partners. And this is why we believe that trade wars and punitive tariffs make no sense. Tariffs act like a tax. They drive inflation. The hardest hit are inevitably workers, companies and the middle classes. On both sides of the Atlantic. And we know how quickly tariffs can affect essential transatlantic supply chains. We do not believe this is good business. And we want to avoid a global race to the bottom. But as we have already made clear, unjustified tariffs on the EU will not go unanswered. Let me speak plainly. We are one of the world's largest markets. We will use our tools to safeguard our economic security and interests. And we will protect our workers, businesses and consumers at every turn. Of course, we are ready to find agreements that work for all – to work together to make each other more prosperous and more secure.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
At the heart of this is, of course: defence and the security of Ukraine, our Continent and the wider world. In this room we all feel what is at stake – that this is a moment in history. More great challenges loom. There has been a lot of talk in the last few days. But it is always instructive to look beyond the words. And to recognise that we are just at the beginning of this process.
Let us take stock of the starting positions: Contrast the approach taken by President Zelenskyy to that of President Putin. In the most difficult of circumstances, President Zelenskyy is prepared to work towards a peace that honours the sacrifice of his country and his fallen compatriots. As Volodymyr Zelenskyy said from the start, Ukraine wants peace more than anyone else. One that is just and lasting so that the horrors of the last years are not revisited ever again. On the other hand, President Putin says he is willing to meet, but on what terms? It is up to him to demonstrate that his interest is not to prolong this war. It is up to him to show that he has given up his ambition to destroy Ukraine. And let me be very clear. A failed Ukraine would weaken Europe, but it would also weaken the United States. It would intensify the challenges in the Indo-Pacific and threaten our shared interests. Because what we have seen is - the Authoritarians of this world are carefully watching whether there is any impunity if you invade your neighbour and violate international borders. Or whether there are real deterrents. They are watching us, what actions we choose to take. This is why it is so important that we get this right.
Ukraine needs peace through strength. Europe wants peace through strength. And as President Trump has made clear: the United States is firmly committed to peace through strength. So I believe that by working together, we can deliver that just and lasting peace. There is a lot that Europe already has brought to the table. Historic amounts, actually. Financially and militarily the overall support amounts to EUR 134 billion. That is more than anybody else has contributed. This includes USD 52 billion of military assistance – on par with the US. And we have put in place hard hitting sanctions, substantially weakening Russia's economy. We have broken one taboo after another and smashed our reliance on Russian gas, making us more resilient – permanently. And we are about to do more. We are working with Ukraine on their EU accession. Because Ukraine is part of our European family. And this is where their future lies.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
This leads me to the discussions we have had in Europe over the course of the last few weeks. Many in the security circles in Europe were confused – some even worried – by the comments made by senior US officials earlier this week. But we need to be honest here. And we need to avoid outrage and outcry. Because if we listen to the substance of the remarks, we do not only understand where they are coming from but recognise there are some remarks we can agree on. Because yes, both the EU and the US want an end to the bloodshed. We want a just and lasting peace, one that leads to a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine. And Ukraine should be given solid security guarantees. But perhaps what resonates with me the most is the need for Europe not only to speak frankly but also to act accordingly. So let there be no room for any doubt. I believe that when it comes to European security, Europe has to do more. Europe must bring more to the table. And to achieve this, we need a surge in European defence spending. Currently the EU27 are spending around 2% of GDP on defence. And yes, our defence spending went up from just over EUR 200 billion before the war to over EUR 320 billion last year. But we will need to increase that number considerably once again. Because from just below 2% to above 3% will mean hundreds of billions of more investment every year. So, we need a bold approach.
Let us take one step back. In previous extraordinary crises, look at what we did. We empowered Member States with extra fiscal room by activating the escape clause. In simple terms, we empowered Member States to substantially increase public investments linked to the crisis. I believe we are now in another period of crisis which warrants a similar approach. This is why I can announce that I will propose to activate the escape clause for defence investments. This will allow Member States to substantially increase their defence expenditure. Of course, we will do this in a controlled and conditional way. And we will also propose a wider package of tailor-made tools to address the specific situation of each of our Member States. From their current level of defence spending to their fiscal situation. Second, for a massive defence package we also need a European approach in setting our investment priorities. This will allow the investments in much needed defence projects of common European interest. Thirdly, we will step up our work to accelerate the accession process of Ukraine to the European Union. We have made significant progress already, but now is the time again to move mountains. My message is: you see Europe adapting, Europe stepping up, Europe making a difference – immediately.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
What is being discussed here today is ultimately about us. Our prosperity, our economy, our security, our borders, our ability to make good on Europe's enduring promise of peace. Our values do not change – they are universal. But because the world is changing, we have to adapt the way we act. We need a Europe that is more pragmatic, more focused, more determined. One that will counter its threats, one that will leverage its enormous strengths and power, one that is standing by Ukraine and its partners. There is a lot that this Europe can do – and it will rise to the moment.
Long live Europe.