Mahoney on Sino-Russia Ties and Gaza
China is blamed for a war it didn't start and for not ending it, but many in the West profit from it and reject peace efforts? The BRI is a foundational element of the world economy.
GAZA
Featured contributor Prof. Josef Gregory Mahoney joined World Insight hosted by Tian Wei along with Rong Ying and Ghanbar Naderi to discuss ongoing developments in the Middle East.
There have been competing analyses since the conflict in #gaza began.Some asserted #israel did not have the capacity for a wider war, and this would mitigate their push against #hamas to avoid a wider struggle with #hezbollah and #iran. Some believed that lsrael had lost its last major engagement with Hezbollah in #lebanon. In retrospect thisthinking was flawed. We've seen no lsraeli restraint in Gaza, we've seen direct, unprecedented assassinations on the Hezbollah leadership with the bombing in Beirut, the assassination of the Hamas leader in Tehran, in addition to the almost unbelievable attack via pager bombs, indicating that Israel not only was able to kill or wound many in Hezbollah's command structure, it was also likely monitoring communications.
Given the accommodation and active support of the US government, given Israel's tactical successes, given Netanyahu's rise from the ashes.I don't think this is really about Gaza anymore. l don't think it's really about Israelis being able to go back to their homes near the border.Israel appears wiling to expand the war and seek some sort of decisive victory, with Netanyahu appealing directly to the Iranian people to
Early in 2023, diplomats from the Middle East were warning that a war was coming given the political dysfunction in #telaviv and the need to externalise those woes onto a common foe. At the same time, well before Hamas' October 7 attack, more than 492 #palestinians, including 120 children, according to the United Nations Office for theCoordination of Humanitarian Affairs, had been killed in the OccupiedTerritories, more than twice as many as in any other year since 2005. An additional 12,769 Palestinians were injured. In short, given the massacres that were already happening before October 7, given a widely anticipated war that might have triggered Hamas' preemptive strike, given the #genocide and assassination campaigns and all else that's followed, one might well wonder whether this was always part of a broader strategy that Israel conceived and set in motion at an earlier date, perhaps in tandem with the Abraham Accords.
Netanyahu knows he as a free hand at least until November 4. Perhapshe already knows Biden will back him thereafter and certainly Trump, should Trump prevail. But after the election we'll see Biden's true colours. Have Blinken and Biden been played by Bibi? Have they simply been stuck in an election year with Democrats split on how to respond?Are they fully complicit? ls this struggle simply about drawing the new #coldwar boundary and reestablishing Israel as a forward garrison? Perhaps. But one can hope Biden will have the moral fortitude after the election to stop supporting the slaughter. He certainly doesn't have it now. A catastrophic failure in leadership.
Prof. Josef Gregory Mahoney
Featured contributor Prof. Josef Gregory Mahoney joined #hongkong #rthk "Back Chat" to discuss the 75th anniversary of Sino-Russia ties, their history and where they're going.
The former #ussr was among the first to recognise the #prc after its founding in 1949, but the relationship soon encountered problems. The start of the Sino-Soviet split dates to 1956, when Chinese leaders worried about Soviet unilateralism and became suspicious that Soviet support and guidance for China's first five-year-plan had the ulterior motive of making China dependent on the USSR for #technology and capital. The split deepened with Moscow inviting the #dalailama to visitafter he conspired with the #cia against #china during the most difficult days of the Great Leap in 1959, then continued to deteriorate in the1960s, producing a border war at the end of the decade, all of which precipitated Mao's decision to open to the US.
The relationship was rekindled in the late 1980s, but by the early 1990s the USSR was gone and China was on its own... lt stepped forward again following US penetration of Central Asia after 9/11 with the US building airbases in former-Soviet republics, imperilling the security ofChina and #russia. Ties again advanced as the US underminedRussian-Ukrainian relations, targeting Russia's strategic positionin #crimea (and Russia's position in #syria with spillovers from theMiddle East also had the strategic objective of being able to blockChinese access to energy, requiring China build a bigger energyrelationship Russia. Simultaneously, the US was taking a more aggressive position against China in the #scs, which in more recent times has included the US building #aukus and proliferating nuclear submarines to Australia. Thus, China deepened cooperation with Russiato improve its defensive capabilities, which the US has mischaracterizedas the source of destabilization.
Blinken says he still rejects Chinese #peace efforts because China provides material assistance to Russia--an unproven allegation. Meanwhile the US continues to send weapons to #ukraine and accommodate #genocide against #palestinians. The #pentagon frets because a large percentage of US weapons' components are made in China, including an estimated 40% of semiconductors. Further, India buys more oil from Russia than China but escapes criticism because the US courts New Delhi for its "Indo-Pacific" strategy. Further, Russian energy is still transiting Ukraine by pipeline to #eu customers.Plus #eu trade with Central Asia has skyrocketed - the open secret that it's a sanctions-busting conduit to Russia. Finally, while in Ukraine last summer, criss-crossing the country by train, l noticed rail bridges were unprotected. If Russia wanted to defeat Ukraine, as the West alleges, then it could do so. So why is China is blamed for a war it didn't start and blamed for not ending it, when so many in the West are profiting from it and refusing peace efforts?
Prof. Josef Gregory Mahoney
China and the BRI Ten Years on: Geopolitics and Development
By Ivo Ganchev
Abstract:
In this article, Dr. Ivo Ganchev builds on his interview with Martin Zubko on the IR thinker podcast, exploring the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) a decade after its launch within the wider context of China’s growing global ambitions. Initially launched as China’s flagship infrastructure project, the BRI has become part of a larger strategic framework alongside the Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Security Initiative (GSI), and Global Civilization Initiative (GCI). These initiatives signal China’s shift toward a more comprehensive global leadership role, encompassing economic development, security, and cultural diplomacy. Drawing on Dr. Ganchev’s research expertise and practical experience, this article examines the BRI’s geopolitical significance, its economic impact, and challenges such as debt sustainability and transparency. It also investigates how the BRI intersects with other global initiatives like the EU’s Global Gateway and multilateral platforms such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This article argues that despite financial challenges, the BRI remains a foundational element of China’s evolving global strategy, shedding light on China’s role in shaping global governance.
Keywords:
Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, BRICS, China, infrastructure, integration, geopolitics, diplomacy, debt, trade, Global Gateway, Global Development Initiative, GDI, development finance, sustainability, international politics.
Citation (Harvard): Ganchev, I. (2024) “China and the BRI Ten years on: Geopolitics and Development”, Regional Policy Insights, 2(1): 1-48.
http://regionalintegration.org/publication/china-and-the-bri-ten-years-on-geopolitics-and-development/
